In the shifting geopolitical landscape of the Pacific region, China is rapidly expanding its influence through aid, infrastructure investment, and strategic partnerships. This comes at a time when New Zealand and other traditional partners, such as the United States and Australia, face increasing challenges in maintaining their dominance. Recent developments, including Samoa’s new visa agreement with China and the Cook Islands’ deepening ties with Beijing, raise questions about New Zealand’s ability to hold its footing in a region that has long been within its sphere of influence.
Samoa Welcomes Chinese Visa Exemptions
In January 2025, Samoa signed a mutual visa exemption agreement with China, allowing citizens of both countries to travel visa-free for up to 30 days. The move is intended to boost tourism, trade, and cultural exchange between the two nations. Samoa’s Prime Minister, Fiame Naomi Mata'afa, expressed optimism about the benefits of streamlined travel, highlighting the importance of China as a partner in economic development.
For New Zealand, this agreement underscores the shifting loyalties of Pacific nations, many of which are looking to diversify their partnerships beyond their traditional allies. With China offering significant financial aid and investment in infrastructure projects, the appeal for Pacific Island leaders is clear.
Cook Islands and China: Strategic Partnership in the Works
The Cook Islands is the latest Pacific nation to embrace a closer relationship with China. Prime Minister Mark Brown is scheduled to visit Beijing to finalise a strategic partnership that will focus on economic cooperation, infrastructure, tourism, and climate initiatives. While the details of the partnership are still emerging, the development is significant as it comes at a time when New Zealand’s presence in the Cook Islands is being quietly overshadowed.
Historically, the Cook Islands has relied heavily on New Zealand for financial assistance, defence, and governance support. However, with China offering large-scale investments and infrastructure development, the appeal to broaden ties is growing. New Zealand, taken by surprise by this move, will need to recalibrate its engagement if it hopes to maintain its influence.
China’s Growing Role in Pacific Aid
China’s aid to the Pacific has rebounded strongly after a temporary slowdown during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, Chinese aid in the region reached $256 million, making China the second-largest donor after Australia and ahead of the United States. This resurgence highlights China’s strategic intent to bolster its regional presence through development assistance. Key projects include the construction of ports, roads, and government buildings, all of which are essential for Pacific nations grappling with limited infrastructure.
While Chinese aid is often welcomed by Pacific leaders, concerns linger about long-term implications. Critics argue that Chinese-funded projects sometimes lead to unsustainable debt burdens and reduce transparency in local governance. Still, for nations facing immediate development needs, the benefits of Chinese assistance often outweigh the risks.
The US Pulls Back, Creating a Vacuum
One of the key factors contributing to China’s expanding influence is the recent decision by the United States to suspend USAID funding in several Pacific nations. The move, which analysts have described as a “self-inflicted wound,” has opened the door for China to step in and fill the gap. With USAID’s exit, Pacific nations are left with fewer options for development funding, making them more receptive to China’s offers of aid and investment.
This shift has significant implications for the region’s geopolitical balance. While New Zealand and Australia continue to provide aid, they may struggle to match the scale and speed of China’s investments. The withdrawal of US support further diminishes the collective influence of Western nations in the Pacific.
New Zealand’s Response: What Comes Next?
For New Zealand, the challenge is clear: it must reassess its role in the Pacific and develop a more proactive strategy to counter China’s growing influence. This could involve increasing aid, strengthening diplomatic ties, and focusing on long-term partnerships that go beyond financial assistance. With traditional allies like the United States scaling back, New Zealand and Australia may need to collaborate more closely to maintain their influence in the region.
New Zealand’s historical ties to the Pacific, rooted in cultural, economic, and political connections, give it a unique advantage. However, maintaining that advantage will require swift action and a renewed commitment to supporting Pacific nations in addressing their development challenges.
As China’s influence grows, the Pacific region is becoming a key battleground in the global contest for power. Whether New Zealand can hold its ground or risk being sidelined will depend on how quickly it adapts to this new reality.
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